“The Central Division is an absolute bear, but it’s been good for us. Being a young team, it forces us to play well every night.” – Barry Trotz

There is no question that the Central Division is the best division in the NHL (sorry Pennsylvania and Metro New York City). Heading into the All-Star break, the Central boasts four of the top six teams in the Western Conference standings, as Chicago, Detroit, Nashville and St. Louis are all in contention.

Given that they are three points back of division-leading Detroit (through Tuesday’s action), the attention of Barry Trotz and the Nashville Predators has solely turned to chasing down the franchise’s first division crown. Is it realistic? With the way the Preds have played going into the break, why not?

As the All-Star break is imminent, the Preds are closer to Detroit (3 points) than ninth-seed Colorado (10 points). Trotz admits that the mindset has changed from being pleased with a playoff berth to seriously gunning for the big boys in the Central.

“We have a little different focus,” the Predators head coach said after this past Saturday’s win over Chicago. “We don’t just want to make the playoffs – we want to win the division. It just happens to be the toughest division in all of hockey. We’re going at it at a high pace and our division is forcing us to play really well. As we play well and try to catch our division, we’re pulling away from some teams. We just have a one-game focus all the time, which is a real good mentality.”

With last night’s 3-1 win in Chicago, the Predators are now 11-2-2 within the division, which has helped them keep pace with the Red Wings, Blues and Blackhawks.

“We all know how close everything is, especially with the top four teams,” Mike Fisher said. “We have played good hockey against our division; it’s the reason why we’re right in the mix. We know that has to continue and we want to start catching teams. We’ve had a good run, but still haven’t moved a whole lot.”

What will the Preds have to do to outlast the likes of Detroit, St. Louis and Chicago? Here are three keys:

- Win head-to-head meetings against aforementioned trio
As you can see in the graph below, the Predators have three games apiece remaining against the Wings, Blues and ‘Hawks. The Preds will host the Blues and ‘Hawks twice each, but must make two more trips to Detroit. They’re going to have to find a way to win more times than not in those nine games.

The key stretch is March 25th through 31st, where the Preds will play these teams a combined four times (all in a row).

- Improve 5-on-5 play in final 32 games
The power play has (unexpectedly) been great. The penalty kill is steadily improving. The two units have a combined 105.6% success rate, which is just above the targeted 100% for each team. With that being said, the 5-on-5 success hasn’t been there like years past. The Preds are currently 17th in the NHL with a 0.98 goals for/against ratio while at 5-on-5. That ratio has been better than 1.00 in each of the last two years.

If the power play can’t keep up as the second-ranked unit in the NHL the rest of the way, the Preds’ 5-on-5 success would have to improve.

- Make wise trades before next month’s deadline
We’ve already stated at this site that the next month will be the most important time of GM David Poile’s tenure in Nashville. Will Poile keep free agent-to-be Ryan Suter? (After this recent stretch, how can’t he?) Will Poile make a splash? Will he just add depth? There are a lot of unanswered questions as the February 27th deadline quickly approaches.

Ideally, the Preds would get an impact forward to boost the offense, and a third-pair defenseman to add depth. If Poile fills both of those needs and keeps Suter, this team could go places.

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The most difficult part of the Preds’ pursuit of the Central is the competition. It’d be easier to sit here and say they need to do this and that just to beat out Detroit or Chicago or St. Louis. But all three are in the mix. How does the Preds’ outlook for the second half stack up against the other three?

For starters, here is the remaining schedule of the head-to-head meetings with the four teams:

How many times will each of the four teams play each other?

How many games, home and away, does each team have the rest of the way?

Factoring in the points per game totals through this point in the season, how many points are the four teams on pace for?

(Key #1: (Avg home point total X Remaining home games) + (Avg road point total X Remaining road games) + Current point total = Final point total pace)
(Key #2: PPG = points per game; Rem = games remaining)

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From here until the end of the season, it’s going to be a dogfight for the Central. I wouldn’t expect any of the four teams to pull away from the pack, especially if Detroit happens to lose a home game or two between now and April. Chicago is a Cup contender, St. Louis has a lot of fight left in them and Nashville is going anywhere anytime soon.

There’s a long way to go, but you can safely say the Preds have their sights set on winning the division instead of just making the playoffs.